Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the political, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with even the basics. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. Each authors two articles that strive for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the notion that there could be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he stated. "One side will prevail here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has got something to learn from the alternative positions."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
