Back in 2018, it took just a short phrase to ignite the party's annual gathering and to show the party was falling out of love with Jeremy Corbyn. Although not precisely stirring rhetoric, the phrase met with wild cheering as delegates rose in spontaneous acclamation.
When the noise subsided, Keir Starmer, remained at the lectern, blinking in surprise. He wasn't really accustomed to his speeches having such an effect. His statement was simply: "Nobody is ruling out staying in the EU". Context, however, is key.
During that darkly divisive time of 2018, straying from his agreed text like this was always going to be seen as issuing a challenge to Jeremy Corbyn, who sought to prioritize Brexit voters in working-class seats above the pro-European instincts within Labour. With that single address, this grey-suited shadow Brexit secretary underwent a transformation – if only for a while – into a risk-taker who would stand up for the party's base against a leader he would later replace.
The Evolution in Position and Settled Issues
In the years since, the landscape has shifted, especially for Starmer himself. An early move after taking over from Corbyn in 2020 was to declare the Brexit issue had been settled by the 2019 general election. During the most recent campaign, he consistently stressed manifesto “red line” promises that ruled out re-entry into the EU, the single market or a customs union.
Similar to Corbyn, his strategy has been to pursue Brexit-y voters in key seats, even if survey data indicates many of them have passed away or shifted opinion.
A Lid That Rattles on Europe
However, it’s now the prime minister’s turn to face the pressures of being a Labour leader. And, if EU relations is no longer the central crisis of British politics, the cap which was firmly shut since Brexit is beginning to rattle again.
The Prime Minister and Chancellor have ramped up the rhetoric about the devastation that leaving the EU has caused to the UK’s economy. It’s a useful stick to criticize the Reform UK leader, who seldom discusses how leaving the EU was his primary goal and remains his sole political accomplishment.
And yet, the scale of the damage, reportedly has resulted in a national economy that is between 6% and 8% smaller compared to EU membership, dwarfs the minor adjustments thus far implemented by the government. The PM's much-touted re-set deal negotiated with the EU last summer offers economic benefits measured in low decimal points.
Cabinet Divergence & Bolder Ideas
The chancellor is one of those attempting to bypass entrenched interior ministry opposition to a broader scheme of a growth-enabling program for young people by which youths can travel between the UK and the EU for work or study.
The deputy prime minister has pondered publicly about the clear advantages of joining a customs union with the EU, while a dozen Labour MPs, such as the head of the Treasury select committee, last week voted for an opposition proposal on joining one.
While Nick Thomas-Symonds, the minister in charge of EU policy, who is now attending all cabinet sessions, maintains the red lines remain unchanged, there exist avenues these could be bypassed. One idea involves declaring the commencement of negotiations now on a much bolder deal, for inclusion in the following election platform, to be enacted only after Labour won a fresh mandate.
The Prime Minister's Deep-Seated Scepticism
However, Starmer has lately been pouring cold water again by warning rejoining a European customs area could undermine the commercial agreements with the US, which he regards as signature achievements of his government.
Reportedly that the PM’s scepticism run even deeper, stemming from three further factors.
- First, he thinks any customs union agreement is now much harder as ministers are busily de-aligning from European rules in numerous policy areas, like environmental standards.
- Secondly, the exorbitant price demanded from Britain for entry into a European defense initiative and the ensuing failure in talks has convinced British officials that European nations have little interest in cutting special deals to the UK and are more focused on demonstrating that leaving the EU was a mistake.
- Thirdly, America's latest security doctrine, which has been welcomed by the Kremlin, is viewed by key advisors in Downing Street as grounds for Britain to maintain distance from the EU.
An Alarming Strategy and Strategic Calculations
This bizarre and terrifying document claims Europe is threatened by “civilizational erasure” due to immigration. It includes only one reference to Britain, found on a suggestion that the US government may interfere in our politics to encourage the growth of “patriotic” parties.
However, instead of concluding that this renders the US an unreliable partner, the government reportedly fear that deeper EU integration would destabilise geopolitics further by endangering precarious American backing for Kyiv, NATO, and other alliances.
Leadership Speculation and The Ghost of 2018
This situation returns us to 2018. The PM has consistently stated his speech was not a pitch to become leader but simply an effort to preserve the possibility of remain in a future vote. Indeed, in those days, he still supported a “bespoke customs union deal” of the kind he now appears to be opposing.
Observers within Downing Street have noticed that the Health Secretary, widely considered would stand for the leadership, is part of a group of senior ministers letting it be known they desire greater ambition on Europe.
Aides to Angela Rayner, another likely contender in a future race to replace Starmer, maintain she won’t discuss her stance on a customs union as it would merely “fuel unnecessary gossip”.
The Obvious Danger and A Prudent Reminder
The danger is obvious. Should the PM reject significant moves towards EU alignment, he allows rivals to claim the territory where most of the party's supporters reside.
It would be wise of him to remember the effect that a short phrase had on his career in 2018. Potential pathways for a big offer on EU relations that the prime minister ought to consider; he should explore them himself, rather than letting rivals adopt them as their own.
